The Covid-19 outbreak is leading to a crisis with considerable losses in terms of (long term) health but also to much of the global economy, with high social costs. The pandemic has not only bluntly reminded us of the fragility of some of our most basic human-made systems, but also of the negligence of these needs over the years. Shortages of essential items have left frontline workers and the general population dangerously exposed to the disease itself. At a wider level, we have witnessed the cascading collapse of the hospital system, not to mention the fracture of entire economic production, financial, and transportation systems, due to a vicious combination of supply and demand shocks.
National governments are struggling to absorb the shock generated by the pandemic. In time the international community will overcome the crisis and begin the recovery phase. Needless to say, at the country level, considering an economic shock in GDP of around 20% in 2020 (considerably more than many other countries), it gives reason to believe that Curaçao is more fragile than previously perceived, and has, therefore, a steeper climb of recovery in front of it.
If anything, the crisis has shown how important it is to keep resources in reserve and ensure systems redundancies for times when unexpected upheavals in the system prevent it from functioning normally. Furthermore, given the interdependence of economic and social systems, the pandemic also highlights the need for strengthening the anticipatory (risk management) and resiliency of systems to tackle systemic threats and help avert systemic collapse.
In the process of producing the FSI 2020 report, availability of data has been a real challenge. In effect it is a major cause for the ratings given. Huge data gaps existed, pre Covid. Post Covid it has probably gotten worse because of the prioritization of all data gathering resources to support the collection of primarily Covid health related data.
The importance of timely, and quality data and statistics has never been as clear as during the COVID-19 crisis. Such data are critical in understanding, managing, and mitigating the human, social and economic effects of the pandemic. They are essential for designing short-term responses and accelerated actions to put countries back on track. The current issue around scarcity of manpower in certain sectors is indicative of detailed availability of data to not only assess the true state of affairs, but also to carve out the policies to solve the problem.
The need for national data systems that withstand temporary upheaval is crucial, for the continuity sound policy making. These pressures on national systems make the case to quickly set up mechanisms to ensure operational continuity by adapting and innovating data production methods and processes. Assessments of statistical operations around the world show that investments and support for data innovations are urgently needed. These will help to both inform policy responses to new crisis, and support development acceleration for the years to come.
Recognizing these international developments and seeing them mirrored locally brings us the realization that the state of fragility of Curaçao will not be significantly different due to the lack of interventions. Because Curaçao’s ranking was in the lowest, most vulnerable, quartile of countries, the year 2021 data will not change that reality. Because of the focus on Covid measures, other necessary social, economic, and governmental interventions were tabled. For example, all economies were struggling with high unemployment. Most countries are in recession. Buying power has negatively affected consumer price indexes of most economies. Global tourism has become quite vulnerable. Consequently, the exercise of collecting data and measuring the effects for change are not going to leverage new insights.
Holistically, the investigation into the focus areas of the Fragile States Index has provided new insights into the root causes and drivers of instability. Because of the complexity and need for more data in several areas, the FSI research will deepen. Several areas have been targeted for deep dives and more rigorous pursuit of local data. Specific areas identified are: 1. Lack of data collection/data sharing, 2. Role of Media/Free Press in Democracy, 3. Corruption As A Key Fragility Factor. Understanding how these components affect the ability of a country to lift itself out of the fragility cycle are critical to influencing decision makers to use the data to drive their decision making related to resilience.
It is for the above reasons, that the year 2021 will not have a FSI update.
Addendum di FSI pa aña 2021
E brote di COVID-19 ta kondusiendo na un krísis ku perdidanan konsiderabel ora ta trata salú (a largo plazo), pero tambe na e ekonomia global, ku gastunan sosial haltu. E pandemia no solamente a sa di rekordá nos bluntly tokante e fragilidat di algun di nos sistemanan humano di mas básiko, sino tambe di e negligensia di e nesesidatnan aki durante añanan. E skarsedat di artíkulonan esensial a sa di laga trahadónan den kuido i e poblashon en general eksponé peligrosamente na e malesa mes. Riba un nivel mas amplio, nos tabata testigu di e kolapso gradual di e sistema hospitalario, sin menshoná e fraktura di henter e produkshon ekonómiko, finansiero, i sistemanan di transporte, debí na un kombinashon visioso di turbulensianan di oferta i demanda.
Gobièrnunan nashonal ta luchando pa apsorbé e impakto generá dor di e pandemia. Ku tempu, e komunidat internashonal lo superá e krísis i kuminsá ku e fase di rekuperashon. Riba nivel di pais, konsiderando un turbulensia ekonómiko den e GDP di mas o menos 20% na aña 2020 (konsiderablemente muchu mas ku vários otro pais), e ta duna motibu pa kere ku Kòrsou ta mas frágil ku lokual a keda persibí anteriormente, i tin, debí na esaki, un subida di rekuperashon mas fuerte su dilanti.
En todo kaso, e krísis a demostrá kon importante ta pa mantené rekursonan den reserva i garantisá redundansia di sistemanan pa ora ku trastornonan inesperá preveni’é di funshoná normalmente. Ademas, mirando e interdependensia di sistemanan ekonómiko i sosial, e pandemia ta enfatisá e nesesidat pa fortifiká e antisipashon (maneho di riesgonan) i resiliensia di sistemanan pa trata menasanan sistémiko i yuda evitá un kolapso sistémiko.
Den e proseso pa produsí e informe di FSI di aña 2020, e disponibilidat di data a sa di ta un berdadero desafio. Gèpnan grandi di data tabata eksistí promé ku COVID. Despues di COVID probablemente e lo a empeorá pa motibu ku a duna prioridat na tur e rekursonan di akumulashon di data pa sostené e kolekshon di data di salubridat primordialmente relatá na COVID.
E importansia di datanan i estadístikanan oportuno i di kalidat nunka no tabata mas kla ku durante e krísis di COVID-19. Tipo di data asina ta fundamental pa por komprondé, manehá, i mitigá e efektonan humano, sosial, i ekonómiko di e pandemia. Nan ta esensial pa por diseñá respuestanan a korto plaso i akshonnan aselerá pa por pone paisnan bèk riba e bon kaminda. E problema aktual relatá na e skarsedat di forsa laboral den sierto sektornan ta indikativo di e disponibilidat detayá di data no solamente pa evaluá e estado aktual…, sino tambe pa diseñá e manehonan gubernamental pa resolvé e problema.
E nesesidat di sistemanan di data nashonal ku ta resistí trastornonan temporal ta krusial pa e kontinuidat di e kreashon di bon manehonan gubernamental. E preshonnan riba sistemanan nashonal aki ta hustifiká e kreashon rápido di mekanismonan pa garantisá e kontinuidat operashonal pa medio di e adaptashon i inovashon di e métodonan i prosesonan di produkshon di data. Evaluashonnan di operashonnan di estadístikanan rònt mundu ta mustra/indiká ku tin un nesesidat urgente pa inovashonnan i sostenementu di data. Esakinan lo yuda tantu pa informá respuestanan di maneho gubernamental pa ku krísis(nan) nobo komo sostené e aselerashon di desaroyo den añanan benidero.
Rekonosiendo e desaroyonan internashonal aki i mira nan reflehá lokalmente ta laga nos yega na e realisashon ku e estado di fragilidat na Kòrsou lo no ta signifikativamente diferente debí na e falta di intervenshonnan. Debí ku Kòrsou su klasifikashon tabata den e kuartil di paisnan mas abou i mas vulnerabel, e data di aña 2021 lo no kambia e realidat aki. Debí na e enfoke riba e medidanan di COVID, otro intervenshonnan sosial, ekonómiko i gubernamental nesesario a keda posponé. Por ehèmpel: tur ekonomia tabata luchando ku desempleo haltu. Mayoria pais ta den un estado di reseshon. E poder atkisitivo a sa di afektá e índisenan di preis di konsumidó negativamente di mayoria ekonomia. Turismo global a sa di bira basta vulnerabel. Konsekuentemente, e trámite/ehersisio di kolekshon di data i e midimentu di e efektonan di kambio lo no bai brinda konosementu nobo.
Di un manera holístiko, e investigashon den/di e areanan di enfoke di e Fragile States Index a sa di brinda konosementunan nobo di e kousanan i impulsornan fundamental di instabilidat. Debí na e komplehidat i nesesidat di mas data den vários area, e investigashon di e FSI lo profundisá. Vários area a keda marká ku e meta pa un inmershon mas profundo i un búskeda mas rigoroso di/pa data lokal. Areanan spesífiko ku a keda indiká ta: 1. E falta di kolekshon/kompartishon di data; 2. E ròl di media/prensa liber den demokrasia; 3. Korupshon komo un faktor klave di fragilidat. Pa komprendé kon e komponentenan aki ta afektá e abilidat di un pais pa saka su mes for di e siklo di fragilidat ta fundamental/di suma importansia pa influensiá esnan ku tin ku tuma desishon pa usa e data pa stimulá nan desishonnan relatá na resiliensia. Ta pa e motibunan anteriormente menshoná ku aña 2021 lo no tin un aktualisashon di e FSI.
